Updated on November 19, 2019 10:16:55 AM EST
The benchmark 10-year Treasury Note yield is testing a relatively important level of 1.78%. If it breaks below that level and holds, there is a very good possibility of seeing another downward trend that brings lower rates. There may be a test of this level, meaning there could be some resistance. But breaking below would allow us to remain very optimistic about seeing mortgage rates move lower in the near future.
Today’s sole economic data was Octobers Housing Starts at 8:30 AM ET. It showed an increase in new home groundbreakings that fell short of expectations. However, a secondary reading that tracks newly issued building permits and indicates future groundbreakings came in well above forecasts. Accordingly, we are considering the data mixed or neutral for bonds and mortgage pricing.
Tomorrow has no relevant economic data scheduled but does have the minutes from last month’s FOMC meeting. Traders will be looking for any indication of the Feds next move regarding monetary policy from discussion of the participating members. The minutes will show what economic concerns members have that influenced their vote for a quarter point rate cut at this meeting. They will be released at 2:00 PM ET, therefore, any reaction will come during mid-afternoon trading. These minutes may lead to afternoon volatility tomorrow, or they may be a non-factor. Because they do carry the potential to influence mortgage rates, they should be watched.
©Mortgage Commentary 2019